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This "cryonics calculator" lets you input the risk of cryonics disasters (storage facility fire, bankruptcy, etc) and the timeframe for reanimation technology to develop, and outputs the overall odds of being successfully reaninmated (repaired to youthful health by advanced medical technology). You are encouraged to play around with with your inputs to see the effect on the result.
The main conclusion I took away is that, for cryonics to work, the individual threats (fire, bankruptcy, etc) must be kept very low for long periods and the reanimation technology must be developed within one century, not many. While suspended you are vulnerable and even small threats may, over time, overwhelm the best of intentions. Taking the approach that "once frozen you can wait many centuries for the technology to catch up" will almost surely fail (your conclusion may vary, of course, depending on your choice of the risk inputs). For me, a cryonics proponent, there is an increased sense of urgency to make our cryonics organizations as stable as possible and to promote the advancement of suspension and reanimation technology.
When you use this web site, your inputs and results cannot be saved. If you would like to use the calculator in more depth, please request and I will send you the Excel version.
Comments or suggestions are welcome (see the contact link to the left). |