This cryonicscalculator lets you input the risk of cryonics disasters (storage facility fire, bankruptcy, etc) and the timeframe for reanimation technology to develop, and outputs the overall odds of being successfully reaninmated (repaired to youthful health by advanced medical technology). You are encouraged to play around with your inputs to see the effect on the result. Click the above right link to see an example video.
The main conclusion I took away is that, for cryonics to work, the individual threats (fire, bankruptcy, etc) must be kept very low for long periods and the reanimation technology must be developed within one century, not many. While suspended you are vulnerable and even small threats may, over time, overwhelm the best of intentions. Taking the approach that "once frozen you can wait many centuries for the technology to catch up" will almost surely fail (your conclusion may vary, of course, depending on your choice of the risk inputs). For me, a cryonics proponent, there is an increased sense of urgency to make our cryonics organizations as stable as possible and to promote the advancement of suspension and reanimation technology.
Choose an option to the right and see how your inputs affect the odds of success. Let me know if you have questions or comments.
Brook Norton, firstname.lastname@example.org
Provide a few inputs and get a quick result.
Customize your inputs vs time.
Under the hood for those interested in how the calculations are done.